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本文根据防洪堤运行的实际，定义了防洪堤结构的风险，并提出了防洪堤结构风险计算的数学模型；其次，分析了土体的物理力学等的不确定性，并用ＭＣ方法计算防洪堤结构的不确定性．算例结果表明，防洪堤结构风险相对于水文风险而言是不能忽视的．
According to the actual operation of flood embankment, this paper defines the risk of flood control embankment structure and puts forward the mathematical model of risk calculation of flood control embankment. Secondly, it analyzes the uncertainty of soil mechanics and mechanics, and calculates the structure of flood control embankment The uncertainty. The results of the example show that the risk of the embankment structure can not be neglected relative to the hydrological risk.