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1978至2003年,中国年人均GDP增长率高达5.7%,经济增长十分显著。与此同时,中国经济发生了令人瞩目的变革:农业劳动力的份额从超出70%的水平下降到不足50%。我们把经济划分为三个不同的部门:农业部门、非农私人部门和非农公共部门。增长因素运算表明,增长的主要源泉是非农私人部门的全要素生产力(TFP)。从农业到非农业的劳动再配置可以解释5.7%的人均产出增长中的1.9个百分点。我们修改了一个一般均衡模型,其中的驱动力量为公共投资和就业,以及由增长因素计算得到的部门TFP。模型很好地拟合了过去的农业就业比重和三个部门的劳动生产力。
From 1978 to 2003, China's annual per capita GDP growth rate reached as high as 5.7%, with remarkable economic growth. At the same time, remarkable changes have taken place in the Chinese economy: the share of agricultural labor has dropped from an excess of 70% to less than 50%. We divide the economy into three distinct sectors: the agricultural sector, the non-agricultural private sector and the non-agricultural public sector. Growth factor calculations show that the main source of growth is total factor productivity (TFP) in the non-agricultural private sector. Labor relocation from agriculture to non-agriculture can account for 1.9% of the 5.7% increase in per capita output. We modified a general equilibrium model where the driving forces are public investment and employment, and sector TFP, calculated from the growth factor. The model well matches past agricultural employment share and labor productivity in the three sectors.