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本文基于QUAIDS模型对中国的棉花需求弹性进行了估算和分析,结果表明:国产棉花的支出弹性大于进口棉花,但进口棉花之间的支出弹性差异细微;进口棉花的补偿自价格弹性绝对值由大到小依次为印度棉花、美国棉花、澳大利亚棉花和中亚棉花;降低国产棉花的价格会对源自美国、澳大利亚和中亚的棉花进口产生轻微的抑制作用;国产棉“低档品”的属性严重制约了我国棉花补贴政策效应的发挥,棉花品质低下是导致我国当前棉花产业困境的根源之一。最后,阐发了由上述结论得到的政策启示。
This paper estimates and analyzes the cotton elasticity of demand in China based on the QUADSS model. The results show that the elasticity of expenditure of domestic cotton is greater than that of imported cotton, but the difference in the elasticity of expenditure between imported cotton is subtle; the absolute value of the price elasticity of imported cotton from the price is large. In descending order, India cotton, U.S. cotton, U.S. cotton, and Central Asian cotton are used in order; the reduction of domestic cotton prices will have a slight inhibitory effect on cotton imports from the United States, Australia, and Central Asia; domestic cotton “lower goods” The property seriously restricts the exertion of the effect of China’s cotton subsidy policy. The low quality of cotton is one of the root causes of China’s current cotton industry dilemma. Finally, the policy implications derived from the above conclusions are illustrated.