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证券市场监管效果是社会关注的焦点,证券监管者非理性偏差直接影响着证券监管效果。本文通过有情境因素的问卷调查,发现证券监管者普遍存在损失厌恶、后悔厌恶及偏好逆转三种非理性偏差。实证研究表明三种非理性偏差之间存在关联性,其中后悔厌恶和偏好逆转呈现高度正相关,后悔厌恶和损失厌恶、偏好逆转和损失厌恶都呈现中度正相关。通过分析其形成原因和表现形式,发现监管者错误恐惧心理是引起三种非理性偏差的共同原因,错误恐惧经历了错误预期、错误体验和错误承担三个演化阶段。在此基础上,进一步分析了错误恐惧导致决策失误的途径,以助于监管者克服错误恐惧,防范非理性偏差。
The regulatory effect of the securities market is the focus of the society. The irrational deviation of securities regulators has a direct impact on the effectiveness of securities regulation. In this paper, through questionnaires with contextual factors, we find that there are three kinds of irrational deviations of loss averse, regret aversion and preference reversal in securities regulators. Empirical studies show that there is a correlation between the three kinds of irrational bias, regret aversion and preference reversal showed a highly positive correlation, regret aversion and loss aversion, preference reversal and loss aversion showed a moderate positive correlation. By analyzing the reasons and forms of its formation, it is found that the regulators’ false fear is the common reason that causes the three kinds of irrational deviations. The wrong fear experiences three stages of evolution, such as wrong expectation, wrong experience and error assumption. On this basis, further analysis of the ways in which false fear leads to decision-making errors helps regulators to overcome false fears and prevent irrational deviation.