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本文应用 Bongaarts 模型定量分析了婚姻、避孕、人流和哺乳等因素对新疆已婚育龄妇女生育率的影响。分析发现新疆育龄妇女总和生育率(TFR)为2.745,高于全国1981年的水平。在影响生育率的诸因素中,避孕和婚姻的作用最大。在避孕因素中,宫内节育器又是影响生育率的主要因素。婚姻对生育率的影响作用主要体现在晚婚和不婚方面。结果提示:推广避孕措施、提高避孕现用率和避孕效果,加强晚婚、晚育宣传是目前新疆计划生育工作的重点。
In this paper, Bongaarts model was used to quantitatively analyze the impact of marriage, contraception, abortion and lactation on the fertility rate of married women of childbearing age in Xinjiang. Analysis found that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in Xinjiang (TFR) was 2.745, higher than the national level in 1981. Of the factors that affect fertility, contraception and marriage play the most important role. In the contraceptive factors, IUD is the main factor affecting fertility. The impact of marriage on fertility is mainly reflected in the late marriage and not marriage. The results suggest that popularizing contraceptive measures, improving contraceptive utilization rate and contraceptive effect and strengthening propaganda of late marriage and late childbirth are the focuses of family planning work in Xinjiang at present.