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经济波动是国民经济运行中反复出现的上下波动的现象,对经济周期波动的研究是宏观经济学中的一个重要组成部分,研究经济周期以期从中找出问题、特点和规律性的东西、更有效的对宏观经济加以调控,历来是经济学家关注的焦点。本文尝试采用H-P、B-P滤波的趋势周期分解方法,对改革开放以后的季度GDP数据进行趋势周期分解。对于软件eviews6.0运行的结果,本文联系实际的经济现象进行了分析。
Economic fluctuation is a recurring fluctuating phenomenon in the operation of the national economy. The study of the fluctuation of the economic cycle is an important part of macroeconomics, and it is more effective to study the economic cycle so as to find out the problems, characteristics and regularities among them The macro-economic regulation, has always been the focus of economists. This paper attempts to adopt the trend-cycle decomposition method of H-P and B-P filtering to decompose the trend GDP of the quarterly GDP data after the reform and opening up. For the results of the software eviews6.0 run, this article analyzes the actual economic phenomenon.