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利用CERES Wheat、CERES Rice、SOYGRO等作物模型与大气环流模型GISSTransientRuns耦合 ,分析气候变化对长江中下游平原水稻、冬小麦和大豆生产的阶段性影响。结果表明 :在未来 5 0年 ,由于研究区域增温明显 ,将导致作物生育期显著缩短 ;如果仅考虑气候变化的间接影响 ,水稻、冬小麦、大豆作物都呈减产趋势 ;在综合考虑气候变化和CO2 浓度增加对作物的直接影响后 ,单季稻、冬小麦、大豆等都将增产 ,而双季稻区水稻的减产幅度虽有所缓和 ,但减产趋势不变。鉴于气候变化影响 ,提出了若干适应气候变化的农业对策。
Coupled with GISSTransientRuns, a crop model of CERES Wheat, CERES Rice and SOYGRO was used to analyze the staged effects of climate change on the production of plain rice, winter wheat and soybean in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that in the next 50 years, due to the obvious warming of the study area, the crop growth period will be significantly shortened. If only the indirect impact of climate change is taken into account, the yield of rice, winter wheat and soybean crops will decrease. Taking into account the impacts of climate change and After the direct effects of CO2 concentration increase on crops, single cropping rice, winter wheat and soybean will increase production, while the yield reduction of rice in double cropping rice area will be alleviated, but the yield reduction will not change. Given the impact of climate change, a number of agricultural responses to climate change have been proposed.