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为了实现公路运输与国民经济的协调发展,引入Malmquist指数,通过数据包络分析(DEA),测算公路运输效率。基于投入产出视角,通过单位根、协整关系、Granger因果关系的检验,分析了1991—2014年间我国公路运输与国民经济的动态发展关系。研究表明:公路运输效率变化与国民经济增长的作用关系存在阶段性特征,总体而言,我国公路运输与国民经济发展还处于非协调状态。其中,1991—2001年间,公路运输效率变化为平稳序列,国民经济增长为一阶平稳序列;而2002—2014年间,公路运输效率变化与国民经济增长都为一阶平稳过程,公路运输效率变化与国民经济增长之间存在协整关系,说明二者之间具有长期的均衡关系。考虑投入因素后公路运输系统与国民经济无显著双向因果关系。国民经济增长能格兰杰引起公路运输效率变化,但公路运输效率变化不能格兰杰引起国民经济增长,说明二者之间仅存在由国民经济到公路运输的单向格兰杰因果关系作用。
In order to achieve the coordinated development of highway transportation and national economy, Malmquist index is introduced to calculate the highway transportation efficiency through data envelopment analysis (DEA). Based on the perspective of input-output, through the unit root, co-integration relationship and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the dynamic development of China’s road transport and national economy during 1991-2014. The research shows that the relationship between highway transportation efficiency and national economic growth has periodic characteristics. Overall, the development of highway transportation and national economy in our country is still in an uncoordinated state. Among them, from 1991 to 2001, the road transportation efficiency changed into a steady sequence, and the national economy increased to a first-order stable sequence. From 2002 to 2014, both the road transportation efficiency change and the national economic growth are the first-order stable processes. The changes of highway transportation efficiency and There is a cointegration relationship between the national economic growth, indicating a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. After considering the input factors, there is no significant two-way causal relationship between the road transport system and the national economy. However, the change of road transport efficiency can not cause Granger to cause the growth of the national economy, which shows that there is only one-way Granger causality between the national economy and the road transport.