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随着改革开放以来,我国经济开始了飞速增长,使得是国家实力显著提升。同时也带来了居民收入差距的逐渐扩大的社会问题。自2009年以来,国家统计局公布的全国居民收入基尼系数开始持续下降,预示着收入不平等的现象得到改善。本文通过搜集1978-2014年的全国人均GDP和全国居民收入基尼系数,并建立二次项回归模型,验证了库兹涅茨曲线在中国存在,且拐点已经到来,并预测基尼系数将会继续下降。回归结果表明,库兹涅茨曲线可以解释中国的收入不平等现象,拐点位于人均GDP到达39000元左右(2014年不变价)时收入不平等最为严重,然后将缓慢得到改善。本文对我国未来收入不平等的问题提供了有意义的政策基础。
With the reform and opening up, China’s economy has begun to grow rapidly, making it a significant improvement in its national strength. At the same time, it has brought about the gradual expansion of the social problem of the income gap between residents. Since 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national income Gini coefficient began to decline, indicating that income inequality has been improved. This paper verifies that Kuznets Curve exists in China and the inflection point has arrived by collecting the national GDP per capita and the Gini coefficient of national income from 1978 to 2014 and establishing the quadratic regression model and predicting that the Gini coefficient will continue to decline . The regression results show that the Kuznets Curve can explain China’s income inequality. The inflection point is that income inequality is the most serious when GDP per capita reaches 39,000 yuan (2014 constant price), and then will slowly improve. This article provides a meaningful policy basis for the future inequality of income in our country.