财务变量的风险信息含量研究——基于中国A股制造业面板数据的实证分析

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现行企业财务报告体系强调受托责任观与决策有用观两个目标并重,对会计信息的风险内涵揭示与会计的风险控制职能的发挥重视不够,这在很大程度上削弱了企业财务报告信息的决策相关性。本文试图从会计信息和系统风险相关性的视角发现能够反映并解释中国国情的风险度量指标,从而明确构建企业风险报告框架的财务变量。本文选取我国沪深A股制造业上市公司的数据为样本,基于Parks面板模型实证检验了财务变量的风险信息含量。结果表明,杠杆调整后的β系数要优于市场模型估计的β系数;现金流、流动比率、成长性、企业规模等财务变量具有显著的系统风险信息含量;相比之下,利息保障倍数与股利支付率两个财务变量还不能正确揭示公司系统风险的性质与变化;财务杠杆也具有显著的系统风险信息含量;财务杠杆与营业杠杆的异向变动加大了上市公司系统风险,相应降低了公司价值与股东财富。并据此提出了构建基于财务变量的风险报告框架等相关政策建议。本文基于平衡面板数据的检验发现了财务变量与系统风险之间存在显著相关性,这意味着财务变量具有显著的风险信息含量,从而丰富了既有会计信息与系统风险相关性研究文献。这一研究的实际意义在于,对于未上市或上市时间较短因而无法得到市场β的企业投资者而言,通过企业财务呈报同样可以“捕获”有效投资决策所需的系统风险信息;而对于存在市场β的企业投资者,通过系统剖析影响市场β的财务变量,可以发现企业运营的主要问题与症结所在,从而指导其做出更为明智的投资选择。投资者不仅需要会计收益信息,更需要与决策相关的风险信息。系统风险是企业风险水平的综合指标,分析系统风险影响因子能够增强会计信息的决策有用性。鉴于现行财务会计报告体系未能有效地向投资者分类提供风险与收益(特别是风险)两个方面的会计信息,我们建议,通过系统风险影响因子的研究构建一个新的风险报告框架,以便为投资者提供更有用的风险信息,进一步拓展会计职能。 The current corporate financial reporting system emphasizes both the concept of fiduciary responsibility and the concept of useful decision-making, pays equal attention to both the disclosure of the risk of accounting information and the risk control function of accounting, which greatly weakened the decision-making of corporate financial reporting information Correlation. This article tries to find out the financial variables that can reflect and explain China’s national conditions from the perspective of the correlation between accounting information and system risk, so as to clarify the financial variables of the enterprise risk reporting framework. This paper selects the data of China’s A-share manufacturing companies listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange as a sample, and tests the risk information of financial variables based on Parks panel model. The results show that the β coefficient after leverage adjustment is better than the β coefficient estimated by the market model; and the financial risk variables such as cash flow, current ratio, growth and firm size have significant systematic risk information content; in contrast, Dividend payout rate of two financial variables can not correctly reveal the nature and changes of corporate risk; financial leverage also has significant risk information content of the system; financial leverage and operating leverage of the different changes in the system increased the risk of listed companies, a corresponding reduction Company Value and Shareholders’ Wealth. Based on this, some policy recommendations, such as establishing a risk reporting framework based on financial variables, are put forward. Based on the test of the balanced panel data, this paper finds that there is a significant correlation between financial variables and system risk, which means that the financial variables have significant risk information content, which enriches the literature on the correlation between the existing accounting information and system risk. The practical significance of this research is that for corporate investors who are unlisted or have a short time to market and thus can not obtain a market beta, corporate financial reporting can also “capture” the systematic risk information needed for effective investment decisions; and For the corporate investors with β in the market, by systematically analyzing the financial variables that affect the market β, we can find out the main problems and crux of the business operations, so as to guide them to make more informed investment choices. Investors not only need accounting income information, but also the risk information related to decision-making. System risk is a comprehensive index of enterprise risk level. Analyzing the system risk factor can enhance the usefulness of accounting information decision. In view of the fact that the current financial accounting report system fails to effectively classify the investors into two types of accounting information on risks and benefits (especially risks), we propose to construct a new risk reporting framework through systematic risk impact factor research in order to Investors provide more useful risk information to further expand their accounting functions.
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