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本文基于VAR模型研究2001.1～2008.12人民币汇率、FDI等因素对中美两国双边贸易的影响,以分析造成中美贸易不平衡的原因。研究结果表明,汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要原因,其对进、出口的影响取决于人民币多边汇率和中美双边实际汇率的综合比较,美国对华直接投资将减少我国对美进口并扩大对美出口,美国经济变化对双边贸易的影响非常突出。此外,国内贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也是不可忽视的。
Based on the VAR model, this paper studies the impact of the RMB exchange rate and FDI on the bilateral trade between China and the United States from January 2001 to December 2008 to analyze the causes of trade imbalance between China and the United States. The results show that the exchange rate is an important reason for the bilateral trade between China and the United States, and its impact on import and export depends on the comprehensive comparison between the RMB multilateral exchange rate and the bilateral real exchange rate between China and the United States. The U.S. direct investment in China will reduce China’s import and expansion into the United States Exports to the United States have a very prominent impact on the bilateral trade caused by the changes in the United States economy. In addition, the impact of domestic trade policies on bilateral trade can not be ignored either.