一、不利因素 1.退耕还林还草。西部省区共有耕地3 800万hm2，其中333.3万hm2耕地将退耕还林。2000年已经完成34.3万hm2，预计2001年将会加快进度，势必减少对化肥的需求。 2.粮食价格短期内缺乏大幅上扬的基础。2000年全年粮食总产量减少459亿kg左右，但相对于庞大的粮食库存 First, adverse factors 1. Returning farmland to forests and grassland. Western provinces and autonomous regions have a total of 38 million hm2 of arable land, of which 3,333,000 hm2 of arable land will be converted to cultivated land. In 2003, 343,000 hm2 have been completed. It is estimated that the progress will be accelerated in 2001 and the demand for chemical fertilizers will be reduced. 2. The price of grain lacks the basis for a sharp rise in the short term. In 2000, the total grain output decreased by 45.9 billion kg in the whole year, but relative to the huge grain stock