Ⅲ对货币波动成因论的实证检验西方的货币主义周期理论认为,经济周期纯粹是一种货币现象,货币数量的增减是经济发生波动的唯一原因。当银行降低利率、放宽信贷时,就会引起生产的扩张和收入的增加,这又会进一步促进信用扩大;但信用并不能无限扩大,当高涨阶段后期银行被迫紧缩信用时,就会引起生产下降,继而出现经济衰退。因此,为了稳定经济,持这种理论的经济学家,如米尔顿·弗里德曼等人,主张实行货币供应量按固定增长率增加的“单一规则”。在我国, III. Empirical Tests on the Cause of Monetary Fluctuation The western cycle of monetarism holds that the economic cycle is purely a monetary phenomenon and the increase or decrease of the number of monies is the only reason for the fluctuation of the economy. When banks lower interest rates and relax their credit, it will lead to the expansion of production and the increase of income, which in turn will further promote the expansion of credit; but credit can not expand indefinitely. When banks are forced to tighten credit during the high stage of the high stage, they will lead to production Decline, followed by economic recession. Therefore, in order to stabilize the economy, economists holding such a theory, such as Milton Friedman and others, advocate the implementation of the “single rule” of a fixed increase in the money supply. In my country,