论文部分内容阅读
文章利用核密度估计和马尔科夫链方法研究了1997-2014年中国各省投资率的动态演进过程,并利用静态和动态空间面板模型研究了城市化率等因素对投资率的影响。研究结论如下:(1)中国各省投资率变化较为频繁,投资率核密度函数的单峰和双峰特征交替出现。(2)中国大多数省份的投资率维持在较高水平,现阶段中国各省经济的发展,依赖于投资促进,另外空间滞后项的引入,影响了投资率的状态转移概率矩阵。(3)城市化率与投资率之间存在倒U型的关系,投资率同时存在空间效应和时间效应,消费、货物和服务净流出与投资之间存在显著的互补关系。因此,需要避免政府对投资的过渡干预,发挥市场机制对投资的作用,实现高投资率的可持续性;需要加大投资力度,以满足居民住房和就业需求;需要在保证消费和净出口的前提下,扩大投资;需要参考上一期的投资情况进行当期的投资决策,并允许省份之间存在适度的投资竞争。
In this paper, the dynamic evolution of investment rates in various provinces of China from 1997 to 2014 was studied by using kernel density estimation and Markov chain method. The static and dynamic spatial panel models were used to study the influence of urbanization rates and other factors on investment rates. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The investment rate of provinces in China varies more frequently, and the unimodal and bimodal characteristics of the nuclear density function of investment rate alternate. (2) The investment rate in most provinces in China maintains a relatively high level. At this stage, the economic development of all provinces in China depends on investment promotion. In addition, the introduction of space lag items affects the probability matrix of state transition of investment rates. (3) The inverted U-shaped relationship exists between the urbanization rate and the investment rate. The investment rate has both the space effect and the time effect. There is a significant complementary relationship between the net outflow of consumption, goods and services and investment. Therefore, government intervention in investment needs to be avoided, the role played by the market mechanism in investment should be brought into play, and the sustainability of high investment rates should be achieved. Investment needs to be increased to meet housing and employment needs of residents. Under the premise, to expand investment; need to refer to the previous period of investment conditions for the current investment decisions, and allow provinces to moderate investment competition.