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节能减排与提高电气化水平并不矛盾,控制能源消费总量并不意味着要控制电力的增速。能源需求预测越来越体现出对能源政策、经济发展、技术进步方向的重要导向作用。国际能源署(IEA)、美国能源部能源信息管理局(EIA)、日本能源经济研究所(IEEJ)等国外机构长期从事能源统计与展望工作,具有较高知名度和影响力。本文拟对上述机构预测方法论和结论进行综合分析,以期能理性看待当前新能源发展浪潮,科学把握未来能源电力发展趋势。
Energy-saving emission reduction and improve the level of electrification is not contradictory, the total amount of energy consumption control does not mean to control the growth of electricity. Energy demand forecasting more and more reflects the important guiding role of energy policy, economic development and technological progress. Foreign agencies such as International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Japan Energy Economy Research Institute (IEEJ) have long been engaged in energy statistics and foresight with high visibility and influence. This article intends to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the above-mentioned institutional forecasting methodology and conclusions so as to rationally view the current wave of new energy development and scientifically grasp the future trend of energy and electricity development.