论文部分内容阅读
系统安全状态的实时监测可以为系统运行安全保障提供关键的反馈信息,是复杂系统事故预警的核心技术。本文应用突变论中的尖点突变模型分析系统在运行时其安全状态的变化过程。将系统的安全状态设为状态变量,而将设备运行状态和人员操作状态这两个直接影响系统安全状态的主要因素设为控制变量,提出基于尖点突变模型的安全状态预测方法。通过对地铁ATS系统中设备的主要结构、故障参数以及操作人员基本情况的分析,建立了适用于该系统的安全状态-尖点突变模型。对该模型计算结果进行的分析证明了模型的有效性。
Real-time monitoring of system security status can provide key feedback information for system operation security and is the core technology of early warning of complex system accidents. In this paper, the cusp catastrophe model in catastrophe theory is used to analyze the changing process of the system’s safety status during operation. The security status of the system is set as the state variable, and the two main factors that directly affect the system security status, such as the equipment operation status and the personnel operation status, are set as the control variables. A safety state prediction method based on cusp catastrophe model is proposed. Through the analysis of the main structure, fault parameters and the basic situation of the operator in the subway ATS system, a safe state-cusp catastrophe model suitable for the system is established. The analysis of the results of the model proves the validity of the model.