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巴河是渠江的主源,巴河的洪水预报工作对渠江沿江的城市防洪抢险具有至关重要的作用。从2006年起,达州水文局开展了巴河洪水预报系统应用研究,建立了基于中国洪水预报系统软件的巴河风滩水文站洪水预报模型方案。从近年应用实践来看,模型预报精度较好,为巴河乃至渠江沿江城镇的防洪抢险提供了科学的决策依据。本文侧重介绍了预报方案构建、模型参数优选及后期应用方面的一些经验,供从事预报工作的同行研究参考。
Bashan River is the main source of Drainage River. The flood forecasting of Bashan River plays an important role in urban flood control and rescue of Drainage River. Since 2006, Dazhou Hydrographic Bureau has carried out research on the application of the Ba River flood forecasting system and established a flood forecasting model scheme for the Baheiteng hydrological station based on China’s flood forecasting system software. Judging from the application practice in recent years, the accuracy of the model prediction is good, which provides scientific decision-making basis for the flood control and emergency rescue of rivers and lakes along the Bashang River. This article focuses on the construction of forecasting programs, the selection of model parameters and some experience in later application for reference in peer research.