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欧债危机、美元疲软、人民币升值,后金融危机时代,世界经济变化多端。希腊债务危机的暂时缓解,难掩欧元区依旧不明朗的前景;美国依靠发新债还旧债支持投资增长的模式,似乎已难以为继;中国宏观经济政策和传统发展方式的双重转型,也正变得刻不容缓。至今仍在发挥余威的2008金融危机,是一场怎样的金融危机?我们对其独特性有多少了解?谁才是人民币升值最大的获利者?中国未来的经济增长依靠什么?欧洲需要找到危机的根本解决之道,美国需要平稳复苏,中国则需要找到通货膨胀的症结。“10个经济学家常常有11个答案,有的时候一个经济学家会提出两个答案。”有人认为,美元疲软,有人则认为美元大权在全面回归;有人认为发达国家的受灾和新兴市场国家的崛起,使得世界经济金融格局已发生重大变化,有人则认为其格局基本未变;有人认为,人民币升值是我国经济结构转型需要,也有人认为,人民币应该贬值……在11月17日青岛市国资委主办的2011“财智对话—宏观经济形势分析与预测”的论坛上,张立群、谭雅玲、张礼卿等与会专家的分析、预测、建言,也许可以使我们从中收获更多的判断。基于此,本刊特别编辑整理了三位专家的演讲内容,以飨读者。
The debt crisis in Europe, the weak dollar, the RMB appreciation, post-financial crisis era, the world economy is changing. The temporary relief of the Greek debt crisis can hardly conceal the still uncertain prospects in the Eurozone. It seems difficult for the United States to rely on its new debt-backed debt to support investment growth. The dual transformation of China’s macroeconomic policies and traditional modes of development also It is becoming urgent. What kind of financial crisis is still going on? What is our understanding of its uniqueness? Who is the biggest beneficiary of RMB appreciation? What will China’s future economic growth rely on? Europe needs to find a crisis The United States needs a steady recovery and China needs to find the crux of inflation. “Ten economists often have 11 answers, and sometimes an economist will come up with two answers.” “Some people think that the weak dollar, while others believe that the full return of dollar power; some people think that the developed countries and Some people think that the appreciation of the renminbi is necessary for the restructuring of China’s economy. Some people think that the renminbi should devalue. ... On November 17, the rise of emerging market countries caused major changes in the world economic and financial structure. Some people think that the pattern of the renminbi is basically unchanged. On the forum of 2011 ”Caizi Dialogue - Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast" sponsored by Qingdao SASAC, the analysis, forecast and suggestions of experts such as Zhang Liqun, Tanya Yarlung and Zhang Liqing may enable us to gain more judgment. Based on this, our special editors compiled three experts speech to readers.