我市对麦类粘虫的测报已有20多年的历史,并积累了较系统的资料。经历史资料分析,筛选出与粘虫发生密切相关的几个因子,并建立了模糊综合决策预报模型,对粘虫发生期历史拟合率达100％,发生量历史拟合率88.89％。通过1992～1994年的预报应用,准确率100％,现将此模型介绍如下: My city of wheat Myzus persica measured over 20 years of history, and accumulated more systematic information. According to historical data analysis, several factors closely related to occurrence of armyworm were screened and a fuzzy comprehensive decision-making forecasting model was established. The historical fit rate of occurrence to armyworm was 100% and the historical fitting rate of occurrence was 88.89%. Through the 1992 ~ 1994 forecast application, the accuracy rate of 100%, now this model is as follows: