一、前言目前西北太平洋台风路径预报多以引导气流原则为基础,无疑这与北半球深厚而稳定的付热带高压所具有的环流背景是直接相关的。从热带天气图上,我们看出西南太平洋的付高较弱,且它与西北太平洋付高有着同步变化的趋势,特别在季节平均图上,这一特点非常显著。在北半球的冬季,亦即南半球的夏季,此时正是西南太平洋热带风暴的盛季,也是南北 I. INTRODUCTION Currently, the forecast of the typhoon track in the western North Pacific is based on the guiding airflow principle. This undoubtedly is directly related to the background of the deep and stable circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. From the tropical weather map, we can see that the Southwest Pacific pay is weak, and it is synchronized with the Northwest Pacific pay trend, especially in the seasonal average map, this feature is very significant. In the northern hemisphere in the winter, that is, the southern hemisphere summer, this time is the tropical southwestern Pacific storm season, but also north and south