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针对地质灾害危险度评价中评价因子权重确定方法的缺陷,依据最小熵分析理论,将评价因子形成线性无关的成分,根据评价因子对泥石流系统贡献率的大小进行评价因子优选与权重的确定,将权重代入经典的泥石流危险度评价模型进行评估,并将评估结果与计算结果进行了对比。分析结果表明:优选出的主要评价因子为一次泥石流最大冲出量、频率、流域面积、主沟长度、主沟床弯曲系数、植被覆盖率、松散固体物质储量、流域切割密度和泥沙补给段长度比,得到的权重分别为0.235 3、0.235 3、0.079 1、0.079 1、0.079 1、0.079 1、0.073 0、0.073 0、0.073 0;极度、重度、中度和轻度危险的泥石流沟分别为3、3、6、0条,评价结果与研究区泥石流的实际情况和发展趋势吻合度较高,从而证明将最小熵分析理论应用到地质灾害评价领域的可行性。
According to the defect of the method of determining the weight of evaluation factors in the risk assessment of geological disasters, according to the theory of minimum entropy analysis, linearly irrelevant components of evaluation factors are formed. According to the contribution rate of evaluation factors to the debris flow system, evaluation factors and weights are determined. Weight into the classic debris flow hazard assessment model for evaluation, and the assessment results and calculated results were compared. The results show that the main evaluation factors are the maximum outflow of debris flow, frequency, basin area, main channel length, main gutter curve coefficient, vegetation coverage, loose solid matter reserves, drainage density and sediment supply Length ratio, the weights obtained were 0.235 3,0.235 3,0.079 1,0.079 1,0.079 1,0.079 1,0.073 0,0.073 0,0.073 0 respectively. The debris flows of extreme, moderate, moderate and slight dangerous were 3, 6, and 0, and the evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation and development trend of debris flow in the study area, thus proving the feasibility of applying minimum entropy analysis theory to the field of geological disaster evaluation.