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从北魏平城迁都、元朝中叶岭北地区移民、 1 2世纪初科尔沁沙地演变、明初兀良哈三卫南迁等四个历史实例出发 ,讨论了气候变冷变干时 ,农牧过渡带变化以及相应的社会变化现象。可以肯定 ,气候变化对历史上农牧过渡带变迁的影响是存在的。同时气候变化对农牧过渡带的影响是通过人类社会系统起作用的 ,不同的社会状态和组合会产生不同的农牧过渡带实况和相应的社会问题。当农耕民族与游牧民族在农牧过渡带附近对峙时 ,气候向寒冷方向的变化常常成为社会动荡的触发因素 ,极端情况下可以产生很严重的后果。
Starting from the relocation of Pingcheng City in the Northern Wei Dynasty, the immigrants in the mid-Yelingbei area in the Yuan Dynasty, the evolution of the Horqin sandy land in the 12th century and the southward move of the Wulha-Hawei-Wei in the early Ming Dynasty, Change and the corresponding social change phenomenon. To be sure, the impact of climate change on the transition of pastoral areas in history has existed. At the same time, the impact of climate change on the transitional zone of agriculture and animal husbandry works through the human social system. Different social states and combinations will produce different livelihood transitions and corresponding social problems. When farming peoples and nomadic peoples stand in confrontation near the transitional zone, changes in climate toward the cold are often the triggers of social unrest, which can have very serious consequences in extreme situations.