农村地区能源需求预测属于区域能源需求预测的范畴 ,主要突出地域的概念。预测中国农村地区能源消费需求形势 ,将有助于制订农村可持续发展的能源战略。本文根据我国要在 2 0 50年达到世界中等发达国家的经济水平这一大目标的要求 ,通过科学分析测算 ,提出了农村地区中长期能源需求的常规方案和加强可再生能源开发利用的方案。预计到 2 0 2 0年和 2 0 50年 ,农村地区居住人口分别为 6 7亿和 4 8亿 ,采用加强方案 ,对商品能源的需求量将分别达到 1 2 9× 1 0 8t和 1 6 3× 1 0 8t标准煤 The energy demand forecast in rural areas falls into the category of regional energy demand forecasting, mainly focusing on the concept of geography. Forecasting the demand for energy consumption in rural areas of China will help formulate an energy strategy for rural sustainable development. According to the requirement that our country will reach the economic level of medium-sized developed countries in the world in 2050 by scientific analysis and calculation, this paper puts forward the general plan of medium- and long-term energy demand in rural area and the plan of strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy. It is expected that by 2020 and 2008, the population living in rural areas will be 600 million and 480 million respectively. With the enhanced plan, the demand for energy resources for commodities will reach 1,229 × 1,080 and 16 respectively 3 × 1 0 8t standard coal