On the basis of the classical nucleation theory, a new model of incubation time for austenite to ferrite transformation has been developed, in which the effect of deformation on austenite has been taken into consideration. To prove the precision of modeling, ferrite transformation starting temperature (Ar3) has been calculated using the Scheil′s additivity rule, and the Ar3 values were measured using a Gleeble 1500 thermomechanical simulator. The Ar3 values provided by the modeling method coincide with the measured ones, indicating that the model is precise in predicting the incubation time for austenite to ferrite transformation in hot deformed steels.