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Egypt’s first freely elected President Mohamed Morsi was ousted by the Egyptian military in early July after serving only one year in office. Though the military claimed to be acting in the name of national unity and the best interests of Egypt， observers said the removal of Muslim Brotherhoodbacked Morsi will further split Egyptian society and even the already divided Arab world.
“The political upheaval in Egypt is a severe blow for political Islam， but it has provided a kind of stimulation for anti-Islam forces to go against Islamic ruling，” said Liao Baizhi， Deputy Director of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations （CICIR）. “The political prospects of Egypt are not very optimistic as the turmoil will continue for quite a long time.”
Old problems
On June 30， the one-year anniversary of Morsi’s swearing in， millions of Egyptian people took to the streets in major cities including Cairo， Port Said and Alexandria for protests against Morsi. The protests eventually led to the ouster of the president.
“According to the secular opposition， Morsi has failed to deliver his promises on reform and power sharing made when he took power last year，” said Liao.
The opposition claimed Morsi’s reform didn’t take into account the rights and interests of minorities. The constitutional revisions by Morsi did not include the possibility of power-sharing in the country but instead further strengthened Islamic rule as well as the power of the president. They also criticized Morsi for failing to take effective measures to improve the country’s economic situation， adding that in terms of foreign affairs， the Morsi regime was still a vassal of the United States.
The accusations of the opposition seem legitimate， but observers claim they were not the fundamental causes of the political change.
“It is true that the Morsi administration and the Muslim Brotherhood lacked ruling experience and economic governance capacity， as they had long occupied the opposition position，” said Liao.
However， Liao said， current social tensions in Egypt have deep historical origins. The increasing wealth gap and social problems left behind by former President Hosni Mubarak cannot be solved in a short time. Meanwhile， vested interest groups are sure to resist changes that would run counter to their benefit. Liao added that the military and secular parties， like those in Turkey， constitute significant anti-Islam forces in Egypt. Morsi’s reform was heavily influenced by Islam and thus met with strong resistance by the military. Also， the severe economic situation in Egypt led many disillusioned civilians to join in the protests against Morsi.
Li Shaoxian， Vice President of the CICIR and a senior researcher on Middle East studies， said current problems in Egypt’s economy could not be pinned entirely on Morsi， adding that different leaders would likely face the same difficulties.
“Morsi is diligent. However， due to the split in Egyptian society， no consensus on any key issues was made in his office. His forced rewriting of the Constitution aroused wide unrest， but in my opinion， changing leadership alone cannot alter the current situation，” said Li.
The military plays a unique role in the political life of the Arab Republic of Egypt. All of the country’s former presidents， with the exception of Morsi， came from military backgrounds.
Former Chinese Ambassador to Egypt An Huihou said the Egyptian military was the major force oppressing the Muslim Brotherhood in the past. Although the military ostensibly respected and cooperated with Morsi’s elected government， it remains more in line with the values and governing ideas of secular parties than with those of the Muslim Brotherhood.
New cracks
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will not be willing to give up its power， which it gained through free elections. Morsi’s supporters have launched new protests against the military in bloody clashes that left dozens dead.
Observers predicted that the situation in the country will remain unstable for the time being. Many uncertainties persist， and the worst case scenario of armed conflict cannot be ruled out.
The Muslim Brotherhood was long in an illegal status， but it managed to attract wide grassroots support. Opinion polls showed the approval rating of Morsi peaked at 80 percent nationwide.
“Though the Muslim Brotherhood was dealt a major blow during the upheaval， it will not fall apart and will surely fight back against the secular parties and the military. It is still a force that cannot be neglected in Egyptian politics，” said An.
However， An added， if the Muslim Brotherhood feels it is being overtly oppressed， it might choose to fight back using the strategy of terrorism， which will cause even bigger trouble for Egyptian society. Liao said that to achieve the reconciliation of Egypt， the three major players—the Muslim Brotherhood， the Egyptian military and the secular parties—should sit down for peaceful talks.
“It is unfortunate that the Egyptian military did not use its influence to promote dialogue between the Muslim Brotherhood and the secular parties. The ouster of Morsi further split the country，” Liao told Beijing Review. “The Muslim Brotherhood still enjoys high support， and without its participation， the political transi- tion of Egypt is meaningless.”
Egypt could now be mired in a vicious circle， wherein its economy cannot recover from recession due to ongoing social instability. Media reports show that during the one-year rule of Morsi， more than 7，000 protests took place in the country. The situation in Egypt is reminiscent of Algeria in 1992， when that country’s military leadership took control just as an Islamist party neared electoral victory. The result was an eight-year-long uprising in which some 100，000 Algerians died.
Changes in Egypt’s domestic situation act as a sort of weather vane. Observers remarked that political changes there may further split the Middle East.
Iran， Turkey and Tunisia expressed their concern about the Egyptian situation and voiced support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey and Tunisia characterized Morsi’s ouster as a military coup， and described the Egyptian military’s oppressive tactics as a massacre.
But some other Arab states， particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates， which saw the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power as a threat to their own national security， welcomed Morsi’s departure and offered congratulations to Egyptian Interim President Adly Mansour. Meanwhile， following the Egyptian upheaval， secular forces in Tunisia are also ready to create waves of anti-Islamism.
“The political upheaval in Egypt is a severe blow for political Islam， but it has provided a kind of stimulation for anti-Islam forces to go against Islamic ruling，” said Liao Baizhi， Deputy Director of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations （CICIR）. “The political prospects of Egypt are not very optimistic as the turmoil will continue for quite a long time.”
Old problems
On June 30， the one-year anniversary of Morsi’s swearing in， millions of Egyptian people took to the streets in major cities including Cairo， Port Said and Alexandria for protests against Morsi. The protests eventually led to the ouster of the president.
“According to the secular opposition， Morsi has failed to deliver his promises on reform and power sharing made when he took power last year，” said Liao.
The opposition claimed Morsi’s reform didn’t take into account the rights and interests of minorities. The constitutional revisions by Morsi did not include the possibility of power-sharing in the country but instead further strengthened Islamic rule as well as the power of the president. They also criticized Morsi for failing to take effective measures to improve the country’s economic situation， adding that in terms of foreign affairs， the Morsi regime was still a vassal of the United States.
The accusations of the opposition seem legitimate， but observers claim they were not the fundamental causes of the political change.
“It is true that the Morsi administration and the Muslim Brotherhood lacked ruling experience and economic governance capacity， as they had long occupied the opposition position，” said Liao.
However， Liao said， current social tensions in Egypt have deep historical origins. The increasing wealth gap and social problems left behind by former President Hosni Mubarak cannot be solved in a short time. Meanwhile， vested interest groups are sure to resist changes that would run counter to their benefit. Liao added that the military and secular parties， like those in Turkey， constitute significant anti-Islam forces in Egypt. Morsi’s reform was heavily influenced by Islam and thus met with strong resistance by the military. Also， the severe economic situation in Egypt led many disillusioned civilians to join in the protests against Morsi.
Li Shaoxian， Vice President of the CICIR and a senior researcher on Middle East studies， said current problems in Egypt’s economy could not be pinned entirely on Morsi， adding that different leaders would likely face the same difficulties.
“Morsi is diligent. However， due to the split in Egyptian society， no consensus on any key issues was made in his office. His forced rewriting of the Constitution aroused wide unrest， but in my opinion， changing leadership alone cannot alter the current situation，” said Li.
The military plays a unique role in the political life of the Arab Republic of Egypt. All of the country’s former presidents， with the exception of Morsi， came from military backgrounds.
Former Chinese Ambassador to Egypt An Huihou said the Egyptian military was the major force oppressing the Muslim Brotherhood in the past. Although the military ostensibly respected and cooperated with Morsi’s elected government， it remains more in line with the values and governing ideas of secular parties than with those of the Muslim Brotherhood.
New cracks
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will not be willing to give up its power， which it gained through free elections. Morsi’s supporters have launched new protests against the military in bloody clashes that left dozens dead.
Observers predicted that the situation in the country will remain unstable for the time being. Many uncertainties persist， and the worst case scenario of armed conflict cannot be ruled out.
The Muslim Brotherhood was long in an illegal status， but it managed to attract wide grassroots support. Opinion polls showed the approval rating of Morsi peaked at 80 percent nationwide.
“Though the Muslim Brotherhood was dealt a major blow during the upheaval， it will not fall apart and will surely fight back against the secular parties and the military. It is still a force that cannot be neglected in Egyptian politics，” said An.
However， An added， if the Muslim Brotherhood feels it is being overtly oppressed， it might choose to fight back using the strategy of terrorism， which will cause even bigger trouble for Egyptian society. Liao said that to achieve the reconciliation of Egypt， the three major players—the Muslim Brotherhood， the Egyptian military and the secular parties—should sit down for peaceful talks.
“It is unfortunate that the Egyptian military did not use its influence to promote dialogue between the Muslim Brotherhood and the secular parties. The ouster of Morsi further split the country，” Liao told Beijing Review. “The Muslim Brotherhood still enjoys high support， and without its participation， the political transi- tion of Egypt is meaningless.”
Egypt could now be mired in a vicious circle， wherein its economy cannot recover from recession due to ongoing social instability. Media reports show that during the one-year rule of Morsi， more than 7，000 protests took place in the country. The situation in Egypt is reminiscent of Algeria in 1992， when that country’s military leadership took control just as an Islamist party neared electoral victory. The result was an eight-year-long uprising in which some 100，000 Algerians died.
Changes in Egypt’s domestic situation act as a sort of weather vane. Observers remarked that political changes there may further split the Middle East.
Iran， Turkey and Tunisia expressed their concern about the Egyptian situation and voiced support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey and Tunisia characterized Morsi’s ouster as a military coup， and described the Egyptian military’s oppressive tactics as a massacre.
But some other Arab states， particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates， which saw the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power as a threat to their own national security， welcomed Morsi’s departure and offered congratulations to Egyptian Interim President Adly Mansour. Meanwhile， following the Egyptian upheaval， secular forces in Tunisia are also ready to create waves of anti-Islamism.