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基于1961-2012年东北地区65个气象站逐日降水、气温、相对湿度、实际水汽压、风速和日照时数资料,计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并对SPEI指数评价实际干旱的能力进行验证,采用M-K趋势检验和正交经验分解函数等统计方法,分析近52a东北地区年、季尺度的干旱演变特征。结果表明:SPEI指数可以表征东北地区的干旱特征;1961-2012年,全区年SPEI指数呈现明显的阶段性特征,20世纪60年代后半段、70年代后半段和90年代后半段-21世纪初的3个时段发生了连续干旱,中西部地区是干湿变化异常敏感的地区。东北地区春季干湿状况变化趋势不明显,但在2003年以后出现变湿态势,夏、秋季有不显著的干旱化态势,20世纪90年代中期以后秋季干旱化态势明显增强,黑龙江省西南部和吉林省西部地区秋旱加强态势较其它地区明显;冬季21世纪全区趋于变湿,变湿态势较明显的地区位于吉林省中西部和辽宁省北部。
Based on the daily precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, actual vapor pressure, wind speed and sunshine duration data of 65 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2012, the standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated and the SPEI index was used to evaluate the actual drought capacity , Using the MK trend test and orthogonal empirical decomposition function and other statistical methods to analyze the evolution characteristics of drought in the annual and seasonal scales in northeastern China in recent 52 years. The results showed that the SPEI index could characterize the drought characteristics in Northeast China. From 1961 to 2012, the annual SPEI index showed obvious stage characteristics. In the second half of the 1960s, the second half of the 1970s and the second half of the 1990s, Continuous drought occurred in three periods in the early 21st century, and the central and western regions were exceptionally sensitive to wet and dry changes. The trend of dry and wet spring in northeast China was not obvious, but the wetting tendency appeared after 2003, but there was no significant aridification in summer and autumn. In the later period of the mid-1990s, the situation of autumn aridification obviously increased. In the southwest of Heilongjiang Province, The situation of strengthening the autumn and drought in the western part of Jilin Province is more obvious than that of other regions. In the winter of 21st century, the region tends to get wet and the areas with obvious wetting potential are located in the central and western Jilin Province and the northern part of Liaoning Province.