基于Dirichlet先验分布的Bayes二项可靠性增长方法

来源 :系统工程理论与实践 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户：darkelf696

【摘要】

：

由于产品系统的复杂性和试验的高费用，并且产品的可靠性增长试验往往基于小样本，因此解决小样本问题在可靠性增长试验中也是非常重要的．借助Bayes理论，假设先验分布为Dirichlet分

【作者】

：

喻天翔宋笔锋冯蕴文

【机构】

：

西北工业大学航空学院

【出处】

：

系统工程理论与实践

【发表日期】

：

2006年1期

【关键词】

：

可靠性增长模型 Bayesian方法 Dirichlet分布小子样 MCMC方法

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由于产品系统的复杂性和试验的高费用，并且产品的可靠性增长试验往往基于小样本，因此解决小样本问题在可靠性增长试验中也是非常重要的．借助Bayes理论，假设先验分布为Dirichlet分布，解决二项可靠性增长问题，能够充分借助先验分布和试验数据更合理估算出外场可靠性．同时在后验分布的计算上，利用Gibbs抽样的Markov Chain Morite Carlo（MCMC）方法仿真后验分布的计算．和传统的二项式Baye8方法进行比较，利用以Dirichlet分布为先验分布的Bayes方法非常适合阶段性可靠性增长

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基于Dirichlet先验分布的Bayes二项可靠性增长方法

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