气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明:(1)农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。(2)政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府(尤其是乡镇及村级机构)的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。(3)不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。 Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events such as drought and drought frequently bring great challenges to agricultural production. It is a clear basis for farmers to take relevant measures and the measures taken by the government to improve them. It is also the basis for further improving relevant policies and guiding farmers to enhance their own responsiveness. And the key. Taking Huabei Plain as an example, the econometrics method was used to analyze the response behavior of microcosmic farmers under the background of frequent drought in assessing whether the government early warning and policy support affected the response behavior of farmers and other factors on the basis of household survey data. Response behavior. The results showed that: (1) Farmers’ response to the drought is positive, and with the deepening of the drought, farmers are more likely to choose to take response measures. (2) The government regulation affects farmers’ response, but only some of the control measures are effective. The government providing early warning information can increase the possibility of farmers to take response measures, however, the effect is obvious only when the pre-disaster and post-disaster warnings are both pre-disaster and post-disaster; TV is the most important early warning medium at present, but it does not significantly change the response behavior of farmers, The most significant impact of early warning messages disseminated through two or more forms of media. In addition, the policy support from the government (especially township and village-level agencies) has some impact on the response of farmers to drought, but the effect is not as obvious in the disaster year as normal years; the means of financial subsidies can obviously promote the enthusiasm of farmers to take response measures, However, the vast majority of farmers have not received any institutional support. The structure and intensity of government regulation need to be improved and improved. (3) different characteristics of farmers respond differently. Farmers in the irrigated areas and households with smaller families’ cultivated land are more inclined to take response measures. This study can provide a scientific reference for formulating relevant regulatory policies in the context of aridification.