两年前的9月15日,美国投行巨头雷曼兄弟宣布破产,标志着自上世纪30年代“大萧条”以来最严重的金融危机爆发。此后,危机从发源地和重灾区美国蔓延到欧元区以及全球。两年过去,民众很难判断,危机是否已经过去。今年春季,美国经济呈现出加快复苏的迹象,但是二季度,复苏不仅没有继续,衰退迹象再现。美国的失业率8月再度反弹至9.6%,民众忧虑情绪与日俱增。纵观全球几大经济体,复苏前景变数犹存。日本经济毫无生气,经济地位被中国赶超;欧洲债务危机阴霾未散。刺激政策成为抵御危机的法宝,政府提供的信贷取代了金融机构的信贷。但结果是,政府信贷本身也遇到了问题,造成了另一轮主权债务的信誉危机。这不仅发生在欧元区,在全世界范围内,各国政府都面临财政紧缩的压力。 Two years ago, on September 15, the bankruptcy of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, which declared bankruptcy, marked the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Since then, the crisis has spread to the euro area and to the world from the United States, where it originated and hardest hit. Two years later, it is very difficult for the people to judge whether the crisis has passed. This spring, the U.S. economy showed signs of accelerating recovery. However, in the second quarter, the recovery not only failed to continue, but signs of a recession reappeared. Unemployment in the United States rebounded to 9.6% again in August, causing the people’s worries to increase day by day. Looking at the world’s major economies, the recovery prospects still exist. Japan’s economy is lifeless and its economic status is catching up with China. The debt crisis in Europe is not overcast. The stimulus package has become a magic weapon against the crisis, with credit provided by the government replacing the credit of financial institutions. But as a result, government credit itself has run into problems, creating a crisis of credibility with another round of sovereign debt. This not only occurs in the euro area, but governments all over the world are under the pressure of fiscal austerity.