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本文在Chingem模型的基础上,构建中国-东盟CGE模型,从宏观经济、产业、省市地区三个角度研究东盟削减中国机电产品进口关税对中国经济的影响。研究结论表明东盟降低中国机电产品进口关税有利于推动我国经济长期增长,促进进出口量的继续增加,同时对社会福利有所改善;带动中国机电产业及其相关产业发展,但不利于农业和轻纺工业的发展;有利于发达工业大省的经济发展,但农业省市的经济将轻微受损;
Based on the Chingem model, this paper constructs the China-ASEAN CGE model and examines the impact of ASEAN’s reduction of import tariffs on China’s machinery and electronic products on China’s economy from the perspectives of macroeconomics, industry, and provinces and cities. The research conclusions show that ASEAN’s reduction of China’s import tariffs on mechanical and electrical products is conducive to the long-term growth of China’s economy, promote the continued increase in imports and exports, while improving the social welfare; driving the development of China’s mechanical and electrical industry and related industries, but not conducive to agriculture and light The development of the textile industry is conducive to the economic development of the developed industrial provinces, but the economy of the agricultural provinces and cities will be slightly damaged;