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为了从发展的角度探究中国煤炭安全生产现状所处阶段,并对未来发展趋势进行整体把握,以持续地提高我国煤矿安全生产水平;通过采用对等点、对等变化率的对比方法从历史发展的角度对中美煤炭安全生产状况进行对比;采用对等变化率和拟合指数函数预测的方法对中国煤矿未来发展趋势和百万吨死亡率进行了预测。结果表明:我国煤矿目前安全生产发展水平与美国20世纪70年代接近,变化率与美国20世纪40年代至50年代大致相同,未来我国煤矿安全生产水平提高的速度将逐步减缓,2020年我国百万吨死亡率预计为0.04~0.06。
In order to explore the current stage of China’s coal production safety from the perspective of development and to grasp the overall development trend in the future so as to continuously raise the level of coal mine safety in our country. By adopting the method of comparative analysis of the reciprocal rate of change, The author compares the coal production safety status in China and the United States; predicts the future development trend of coal mines in China and the one-millionth-ton mortality rate by using the methods of equivalent rate of change and fitting exponential function. The results show that the level of coal mine safety production in China is close to that of the United States in the 1970s and the rate of change is about the same as that in the United States from the 1940s to the 1950s. In the future, the level of coal mine safety in our country will gradually slow down. In 2020, Tons of death rate is expected to be 0.04 ~ 0.06.