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以黑龙江省26年的大豆产量和种植规模作为研究对象,根据时间序列分析和作物比较优势的原理,建立大豆综合比较优势指数的时间序列模型,对优势指数做出预测。结果表明:2012～2017年黑龙江省大豆生产的比较优势指数分别为1.873、1.7323、1.7592、1.6106、1.6383,说明相对于全国大豆生产是占优势的,但是指数呈逐年下降趋势,所以建议有关部门给予足够的重视。
Taking 26 years of soybean production and planting scale in Heilongjiang Province as the research object, according to the time series analysis and the principle of crop comparative advantage, the time series model of soybean comprehensive comparative advantage index was established to predict the dominant index. The results showed that the comparative advantage index of soybean production in Heilongjiang province from 2012 to 2017 were 1.873, 1.7323, 1.759, 1.6106 and 1.6383, respectively, which indicated that the soybean production was dominant relative to the national soybean production, but the index showed a declining trend year by year. Therefore, Pay enough attention.