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电力发展水平的量化综合评价对准确认识地区电力发展的特点和趋势具有重要意义。对电力发展水平的评价指标体系、动态综合评价方法和评价结果分析进行研究。建立电力发展水平评价的三级指标体系,从经济能源协调度、发电水平、用电水平、供电水平和电力发展潜力5个方面刻画地区电力发展水平。提出考虑主观权重约束的改进投影寻踪方法建立静态评价模型,将模糊专家评价和权数非独裁条件以约束形式嵌入投影寻踪模型,实现主观专家意见和客观数据信息的结合;利用时序信息熵确定时序加权向量,将各时间断面的静态评价模型集结,建立电力发展水平动态综合评价模型。以1994至2013年全国30个省、市、自治区的数据为样本,通过横向、纵向对比二级指标评价值和电力发展水平综合评价值,分析中国电力工业发展的地区差异、特点及潜力。
The comprehensive assessment of the level of power development is of great importance to accurately understand the characteristics and trends of regional power development. The evaluation index system of electric power development level, the dynamic comprehensive evaluation method and the analysis of evaluation results are studied. Establish a three-level indicator system for evaluating the level of electric power development, and describe the level of regional electric power development from the following five aspects: economic energy coordination, power generation level, power consumption level, power supply level and power development potential. The improved projection pursuit method considering the subjective weight constraint is proposed to establish a static evaluation model. The fuzzy expert evaluation and the weighted non-authoritarian conditions are embedded in the projection pursuit model with constraint form, so as to realize the combination of subjective expert opinion and objective data information. The timing weight vectors are determined, and the static evaluation models of each time section are assembled to establish a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model for the level of electricity development. Taking the data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 1994 to 2013 as samples, this paper analyzes the regional differences, characteristics and potentials of China’s electric power industry through horizontal and vertical comparisons of the secondary indicators and the integrated evaluation of electric power development.