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边坡的永久位移为边坡工程的抗震设计和坡体稳定性判识提供了可靠的依据。利用汶川地震时记录到的大量强震动记录,建立了基于临界加速度比、Arias强度和地震剩余强度的永久位移预测模型。通过能量法将实测边坡位移转换为无支护结构的边坡永久位移,并利用其检验了模型的有效性。文中提出的3种位移模型与回归数据具有良好的相关性,基于地震剩余强度的模型拟合效果最佳,说明永久位移与地震剩余强度具有强相关性;以临界加速度比为参数的模型简单实用;以Arias强度为参数的模型判定系数和预测精度均较差。研究结果表明,由于记录台站的当地效应,基于强震动记录回归的永久位移模型具有区域相关性。文中提出的模型可为四川及其邻近省份的西部山区区域地震滑坡风险评价、震后滑坡灾势评估以及具体边坡工程地震稳定性的快速预估提供依据。
The permanent displacement of the slope provides a reliable basis for the seismic design of the slope and the identification of slope stability. Based on a large number of strong earthquake records recorded during the Wenchuan earthquake, a permanent displacement prediction model based on critical acceleration ratio, Arias intensity and residual strength of earthquake was established. Through the energy method, the measured displacement of the slope is converted into the permanent displacement of the slope without support structure, and the validity of the model is verified. The three displacement models proposed in this paper have good correlation with the regression data, and the model fitting effect based on the residual strength of the earthquake is the best, which shows that the permanent displacement is strongly correlated with the residual strength of the earthquake. The model with the critical acceleration ratio as the parameter is simple and practical The Arias intensity as a parameter of the model decision coefficients and prediction accuracy are poor. The results show that due to the local effect of recording stations, the permanent displacement model based on strong vibration log regression has regional correlation. The proposed model can provide a basis for the risk assessment of earthquake landslides in western mountainous regions in Sichuan and its neighboring provinces, the assessment of post-earthquake landslide hazards and the rapid prediction of seismic stability of specific slope projects.