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基于突变级数法,建立了滑坡稳定性评价和预测模型。在相关研究的基础上,建立了滑坡稳定性评价指标的递阶层次结构,以滑带强度、滑面特征、滑坡外形特征及其近期活动等4个内部影响因素,以及暴雨作用、河流作用、滑坡后缘加载、人工活动和地震作用等5个外部影响因素,作为滑坡稳定性识别的判别因子;以22组典型滑坡工程案例作为训练样本,建立了滑坡稳定性评价模型和突变级数判据;然后利用6组典型滑坡工程实际案例作为测试样本,检验了模型的可行性和可靠性。研究表明,突变级数法对滑坡稳定性的识别结果与实际情况吻合,并与系统加权聚类分析法、判别分析法等的识别结果一致。
Based on catastrophe series method, landslide stability evaluation and prediction model are established. Based on the related research, the hierarchical structure of landslide stability evaluation index is established. Based on four internal influencing factors, such as sliding zone strength, sliding surface features, landslide appearance features and its recent activities, as well as heavy rainfall, river action, Landslide back-loading, artificial activities and earthquakes as discrimination factors of landslide stability identification. Taking 22 typical landslides as training samples, landslide stability evaluation model and mutation progression criterion are established Then, six groups of typical landslide engineering cases were used as test samples to test the feasibility and reliability of the model. The results show that the method of mutation series agrees well with the actual situation of landslide stability and is consistent with the identification results of system weighted cluster analysis and discriminant analysis.