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随着目前“二孩”政策的放开,城市家庭人口结构的变化是否会对居民文化消费产生挤出效应?基于人口流动和人际沟通形成的社会网络资本是否会促进居民的文化消费?基于此,本文通过省际动态面板GMM模型,得出以下结论:一是证实了少儿抚养比与居民文化消费呈倒“U”型关系,“二孩”政策有利于城市家庭文化消费支出的增加,但有临界点;二是老年抚养比与居民文化消费呈负相关,即未来我国“老龄化”的趋势,不利于文化消费的增长;三是手机及互联网的普及促进了城市居民的文化消费。基于此,从推动城市文化产品供给侧改革、利用“互联网+文化”的技术优势、不同人口的消费偏好差异三个方面提出对策建议。
With the liberalization of the current policy of “two children”, whether the changes in the population structure of urban families will have a crowding-out effect on the cultural consumption of residents? Will the social capital based on population flow and interpersonal communication promote the cultural consumption of residents? Based on this, through the inter-provincial dynamic panel GMM model, this paper draws the following conclusions: First, it confirms that the dependency ratio between children and residents is inversely proportional to “U”, and “second child” policy is beneficial to urban family culture Second, the dependency ratio of the elderly is negatively correlated with the cultural consumption of residents, that is, the trend of “aging” in China in the future is not conducive to the growth of cultural consumption. Third, the popularization and promotion of mobile phones and the Internet The cultural consumption of urban residents. Based on this, suggestions are put forward from three aspects: promoting the reform of supply side of urban cultural products, utilizing the technical advantages of “Internet + culture ” and the differences in consumption preferences of different populations.