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目的了解秦皇岛市流行性病毒性感冒(流感)流行规律,为流感预防控制提供依据。方法利用Excel和SPSS软件对2009年5月流感监测系统启动以来3年的流感样病例(ILI)监测资料和病原学检测资料进行分析。结果 ILI就诊百分比(ILI%)高峰每年在11月中旬—3月上旬。3个年度的ILI%分别为2.73%、1.01%和0.85%,差异有统计学意义,χ2=883.70,P<0.01。优势毒株在新甲型H1N1、季节性H3、B型之间,ILI好发年龄在5～25岁。3个年度流感病毒核酸阳性检出率分别为44.94%、13.47%和7.91%,χ2=280.89,P<0.01,差异有统计学意义。ILI%与流感病毒阳性检出率之间呈正相关。2009—2010年相关性最好,剔除阳性率为0和100%的监测周,r=0.852,P<0.01。结论 ILI流行趋势与流感病毒活动趋势基本一致,可以用ILI%监测反映流感病毒活动的强度,判断流感发病水平和高峰的出现,以便及时采取预防控制措施。
Objective To understand the prevalence of influenza virus (influenza) in Qinhuangdao City and provide basis for prevention and control of influenza. Methods Excel and SPSS software were used to analyze the flu-like illness cases (ILI) monitoring data and pathogen detection data since the start of the flu surveillance system in May 2009. Results The percentage of ILI visits (ILI%) peaked from mid-November to early March each year. The three year’s ILI% were 2.73%, 1.01% and 0.85% respectively, the difference was statistically significant, χ2 = 883.70, P <0.01. Advantage strains in the new H1N1, seasonal H3, B type, ILI good hair age at 5 to 25 years old. The positive rates of the three annual influenza virus nucleic acids were 44.94%, 13.47% and 7.91% respectively, χ2 = 280.89, P <0.01, the difference was statistically significant. There was a positive correlation between ILI% and the positive detection rate of influenza virus. From 2009 to 2010, the correlation was the best, excluding the monitoring weeks with positive rates of 0 and 100%, r = 0.852, P <0.01. Conclusions ILI epidemic trends are basically the same as those of influenza viruses. ILI% surveillance can reflect the intensity of influenza virus activity and determine the incidence of influenza and the peak occurrence so as to take timely preventive and control measures.