截至2014年底地方政府债务总规模达24万亿元,较2013年6月增长35%2015年地方政府债务限额锁定为16万亿元,以制约地方政府直接债务规模2015年地方政府债券置换存量债务额度升至3.2万亿元,即今年再增地方债务置换额度1.2万亿元我们预计2015年地方债发行量或达3.8万亿元,2016~2020年期间发行总量或达3~5万亿元我们估算2017年未偿地方债规模或达10万亿元,2020年或达19万亿元 As of the end of 2014, the total size of local government debt reached 24 trillion yuan, an increase of 35% over June 2013. The local government debt ceiling was locked at 16 trillion yuan in 2015 to limit the direct debts of local governments. The quota will rise to 3.2 trillion yuan, which means that this year we will increase the amount of local debt replacement by 1.2 trillion yuan. We expect the local government debt issuance will reach 3.8 trillion yuan in 2015, or between 3 and 5 trillion yuan in 2016-2020 Yuan We estimate the size of the outstanding government bonds in 2017 to reach 10 trillion yuan or up to 19 trillion yuan in 2020