论文部分内容阅读
利用1960~2015年水文、气候与社会经济数据,采用相关分析、主成分分析等统计分析方法定量的分析了近55年博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化影响因素。研究结果表明:1)近55年来,在人类活动与气候变化的共同影响下,博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位经历上升与下降的变化过程,其中博斯腾湖水位呈现下降-上升-下降的变化趋势,而伊赛克湖水位表现下降-上升-下降-上升的变化趋势。2)主成分分析结果表明,引起博斯腾湖水位变化的第一主成分为人文因素,第二主成分为自然气候因素,而引起伊塞克湖水位变化的第一主成分为气候因素,第二主成分为人文因素。
Based on the hydrological, climatic and socio-economic data from 1960 to 2015, the influencing factors of the water level changes in Bosten Lake and Issyk Kul Lake were quantitatively analyzed by correlation analysis, principal component analysis and other statistical methods. The results show that: 1) The water level of Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul Lake underwent a process of rising and falling in the past 55 years under the common influence of human activities and climate change, in which the water level of Bosten Lake showed a decreasing-rising-declining trend, while Iskac Lake water level performance decline - rise - decline - the rising trend. 2) The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component causing the water level change in Bosten Lake is the human factor, the second principal component is the natural climate factor, and the first principal component causing the change of water level in Issyk Kul Lake is climatic factor. The second principal Composition of human factors.