论文部分内容阅读
企业的财务困境是一个动态变化的机理形成过程。企业陷入财务困境及其可能性分析是财务困境问题研究的重要组成部分,理论界对此尚未形成统一的结论。文章通过面板数据二元选择模型研究企业陷入财务困境的可能性,其实证分析的回归结果显示:企业面临财务困境主要通过宏观经济、行业或企业生产水平等因素所致的价格下降、销售渠道堵塞、变现能力困难、库存品积压等引起的流动比率、总资产周转率、总资产收益率异常上升来进行观测预警。由此,可以根据上市公司的财务报告资料来预测上市公司陷入财务困境的可能性,该类研究具有重要的现实意义与应用价值。
Corporate financial distress is a dynamic process of change in the formation of the mechanism. It is an important part of the research on the financial distress that the enterprises fall into the financial predicament and its possibility analysis, and the theoretical circles have not reached a unified conclusion yet. The article studies the possibility of enterprises getting into financial distress through the binary selection model of panel data. The regression results of the empirical analysis show that the enterprises face financial distress mainly due to the macroeconomic, industry or enterprise production levels and other factors caused by the decline in prices, sales channels blocked , Liquidity difficulties, inventory backlog caused by liquidity ratio, total asset turnover, abnormal return on total assets for observation and early warning. Therefore, it is possible to predict the probability of a listed company going into financial distress based on the financial reports of listed companies. Such research has important practical significance and application value.