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鉴于海事码头系统的复杂性,利用单一的集对分析理论难以对其做出准确的风险评价,因此,将熵权和集对分析理论加以组合,基于熵权和集对分析的基本理论,建立EW-SPA模型的海事码头安全评价研究方法。首先,综合分析影响码头安全的影响因素,建立包括自然环境、港口环境、交通环境3类一级指标及14项二级指标的海事码头安全评价指标体系。其次,应用专家调查法赋权与信息熵的理论确定权重,从而保证了原始信息的完整性,减少信息的流失。再次,运用集对分析原理计算集对联系度,对海事码头的安全状况进行评价和预测,从而克服了传统码头安全评价方法在处理不确定性方面的不足。最后,运用EW-SPA模型和熵权云模型对道仁矶海事码头的安全评价与预测进行比对分析,结果表明,将EW-SPA模型应用于海事码头的安全评价和预测,计算简单,评价结果较可靠。
In view of the complexity of the maritime terminal system, it is difficult to make accurate risk assessment by using a single set pair analysis theory. Therefore, the theory of entropy and set pair analysis is combined, and based on the basic theory of entropy and set pair analysis, EW-SPA model of marine terminal safety assessment research methods. First of all, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the factors affecting the pier safety, the establishment of natural environment, port environment, traffic environment, three kinds of first-class indicators and 14 second-class indicators of marine safety assessment system. Secondly, applying the theory of expert investigation method and information entropy to determine the weight, so as to ensure the integrity of the original information and reduce the loss of information. Thirdly, the principle of set pair analysis is used to calculate the set-pair connection degree and the safety status of the marine wharf is evaluated and predicted, thus overcoming the shortcomings of the traditional wharf safety evaluation method in dealing with the uncertainty. Finally, the EW-SPA model and the entropy cloud model are used to compare the safety evaluation and forecast of Tao-jin-ji maritime wharf. The results show that the EW-SPA model is applied to the safety evaluation and prediction of maritime wharf, the calculation is simple, The result is more reliable.