本文采用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等计量方法,分析了1961～2006年园艺产品世界进口价格和中国出口价格的相互作用。研究表明,世界进口价格受我国出口价格冲击较小,仅有6%的波动由我国出口价格冲击解释;而我国出口价格受世界进口价格影响越来越大。两种价格有趋同趋势,价格趋同降低了我国出口价格的波动性,增加了出口调控的难度。 In this paper, vector regression model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition and other measurement methods were used to analyze the interaction between the import prices of horticultural products in the world and the export prices of China from 1961 to 2006. The research shows that the world import price is less affected by the export price of our country, only 6% of the fluctuation is explained by the impact of the export price of our country. And the export price of our country is more and more influenced by the world import price. There is a trend of convergence of the two prices. Convergence of prices reduces the volatility of China’s export prices and increases the difficulty of export control.