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1978年以来中国宏观经济增长强劲且波动剧烈,中国经济波动存在明显的繁荣—衰退周期。政府的凯恩斯主义宏观调控政策使得政府支出在中国繁荣—衰退周期中扮演重要角色。笔者尝试在动态随机一般均衡模型的框架下,引入政府支出的外部性、政府支出对通胀的逆向调整及政府支出的货币融资渠道,来解释中国宏观经济波动中的繁荣—衰退周期。研究表明:(1)政府支出波动是中国繁荣—衰退周期的重要诱因;(2)政府支出的外部性是中国繁荣—衰退周期形成的关键机制;(3)政府支出的货币融资渠道及对通胀的逆向调整有助于解释中国通胀波动的顺周期性及滞后性。
Since 1978, China’s macroeconomic growth has been strong and volatile. There has been a clear boom in China’s economy - the recession cycle. Government Keynesian macro-control policies have made government spending an important part of China’s boom-recession cycle. The author attempts to explain the prosperity-recession cycle in China’s macro-economic fluctuations under the framework of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by introducing the externality of government expenditures, the reverse adjustment of government expenditure to inflation and the monetary financing channel of government spending. The research shows that: (1) The fluctuation of government expenditure is an important inducement for China’s boom-recession cycle; (2) The externalities of government expenditure are the key mechanisms for the prosperity of China - the recession cycle; (3) The monetary financing channels of government spending and the inflation The reverse adjustment helps explain the cyclicality and lag of inflation in China.