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气候变暖使冬小麦种植区域发生北扩现象。为研究近几十年来京津冀冬小麦可种植北界变化以及气温变化对该地区实际冬小麦种植北界的影响,采用指标计算法对热量资源条件下的冬小麦可种植北界进行了模拟与分析,同时结合遥感数据和决策树模型提取了该区域冬小麦的实际种植北界,比较了两者间的差异。结果表明,热量资源条件下,京津冀地区冬小麦可种植北界纬度以每10年0.0427°的速率向北移动;温度是冬小麦实际种植北界北移的基础且与其呈正相关。
Climate warming causes the phenomenon of northward expansion in the winter wheat planting area. In order to study the influence of winter planting of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei on the northern boundary and the change of temperature on the northern boundary of winter wheat planting in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in recent decades, the northern boundary planting of winter wheat under the condition of caloric resources was simulated and analyzed by index calculation method. At the same time, the northern boundary of winter wheat cultivation in this area was extracted by using remote sensing data and decision tree model, and the difference between the two was compared. The results showed that under the condition of caloric resources, the latitudinal latitudes of the northern boundary of winter wheat could be moved northward at a rate of 0.0427 ° every 10 years in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Provinces. The temperature was the basis of the northward transference of the northern boundary of winter wheat cultivation and positively correlated with it.