基于分形市场理论的动量和反转效应转换研究

来源 :系统科学与数学 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:zhang123gang
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动量和反转效应广为人知,但两者之间会相互转换却鲜有人知.在少数派和多数派博弈的基础上,结合分形市场理论中投资者有限理性的特征,通过构建投资者的决策机制,建立了博弈过程,分析了动量和反转效应两者间的相互转换.研究结果表明,盈利动机驱使下,投资者在动量和反转策略集中选择成功率最高的策略进行实际投资,该种动态选择行为引致证券过度需求在正负之间转换,进而表现出动量和反转效应的相互转换. Momentum and reversal effects are widely known, but little is known about the conversion between the two.Based on the game of minority and majority, combined with the bounded rationality of investors in the theory of fractal markets, by constructing the decision-making mechanism of investors , The game process is established and the mutual conversion between momentum and reversal effect is analyzed.The results show that under the motivation of profit motivation, investors choose the highest successful strategy of momentum and reversal strategy to make the actual investment, The dynamic selection behavior leads to the transition of the excessive demand of securities between positive and negative, and then shows the mutual conversion of momentum and reversal effects.
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