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劳动力从农村和欠发达地区向城镇和发达地区大规模流动是与中国经济发展和体制转轨相伴随的特征化事实。区别于已有研究聚焦劳动力流入对中国经济增长以及城镇和发达地区增长贡献度的研究偏向,本文着重聚焦劳动力外流给农村和欠发达地区带来的福利效应,结合作者在广东等7个省所开展的微观调研和深度访谈,对劳动力外流对作为流出地的农村和欠发达地区的福利效应进行考察。研究表明,除正向效应外,智力外流导致农村和欠发达地区发展动力丧失,陷入增长困境;学界所预期的劳动力外流给欠发达地区带来的回波效应更大而扩散效应并不显著;长期以来的劳动力大规模外流使得农村留守儿童和老人的福利受损;新生代农民工转移刚性的形成与固化进一步拉低着欠发达地区的产业承接能力,形成其内生式发展的新瓶颈。基于此,中央政府顶层政策设计与地方政府微观规制均需做出新的调整。
The large-scale movement of labor from rural areas and underdeveloped areas to urban areas and developed areas is characterized by the fact that China’s economic development and institutional transition are accompanied by it. Different from the previous studies focusing on the inflow of labor into China’s economic growth and the contribution of urban and developed areas, this paper focuses on the welfare effects of labor migration on rural and underdeveloped areas. Combining the author’s research findings in seven provinces Conducted micro-surveys and in-depth interviews to examine the welfare effects of labor outflows on rural and underdeveloped areas as outflows. The research shows that, in addition to the positive effect, the outflow of intelligence leads to the loss of development momentum in rural and underdeveloped areas and the growth predicament; the expected return of labor force in underdeveloped areas is more significant and the effect of diffusion is not significant; The long-term massive outflow of labor makes the well-being of left-behind children and the elderly in rural areas impaired. The formation and solidification of migrant workers in the new generation of migrant workers further weaken the industry’s ability to undertake undertakings and form a new bottleneck in their endogenous development. Based on this, the top-level policy design of the central government and the micro-regulation of local governments need to make new adjustments.