论文部分内容阅读
根据对渤海湾客滚运输事故原因的统计分析,建立了基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输航行风险分析模型。利用Semanderes算法求出故障树的最小割集,对客滚运输安全进行定性分析。基于容斥定理设计了顶事件概率的求解算法,计算出了各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度,进而对客滚运输安全进行定量分析。通过综合分析得出影响客滚运输安全的重要因素。
According to the statistical analysis of the causes of passenger transport in Bohai Bay, a risk analysis model of passenger transport based on fault tree analysis is established. Semanderes algorithm is used to find the minimum cut set of the fault tree, and the qualitative analysis of the security of passenger rolling is carried out. Based on the receiver-exclusion theorem, the algorithm of solving the top event probability is designed and the probability importance and the key importance of each event are calculated. Then the quantitative analysis of the security of passenger rolling is carried out. Through the comprehensive analysis, it comes to the important factors that affect the safety of passenger rolling.