根据全国18家农产品批发市场1407家购销商的问卷调研数据,本文采用Heckman两阶段模型,对农产品购销商借贷发生率、借贷需求规模进行了数理分析。结论认为,采用法人组织形式、社会资本禀赋高的购销商发生借贷行为的可能性更高。经营产品需要经过储藏和初加工处理的购销商借贷规模更高,经营规模则与借贷规模呈现倒U型关系,并且,正规金融机构可提供的贷款数额大幅度高于非正规渠道。 According to the survey data of 1407 purchasers and retailers in 18 wholesale markets of agricultural products, this paper uses Heckman’s two-stage model to conduct mathematical analysis on the incidence of loan and the demand scale of agricultural products purchasers. The conclusion is that the use of legal person organizations, the high endowment of social capital, the possibility of borrowing more likely. The products that need to go through storage and initial processing need to borrow more, the operating scale shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with the size of loans, and the amount of loans that can be provided by formal financial institutions is much higher than that of informal channels.