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在对前人计算方法进行改进的基础上,将出口增长分解为扩展边际、数量和价格三个方面,利用1995~2010年HS-6位数国际贸易数据,实证分析中国出口增长的动态特点。结论显示:1995~2010年,出口增长的三元边际有不同的变化趋势,扩展边际和价格的贡献度有不断降低的趋势,而数量的贡献度呈上升趋势;2008~2010年金融危机期间,相对于世界其他各国,中国的出口表现良好,原因在于面对2009年不景气的出口市场,中国出口采用降低价格进行促销的策略,而当2010年出口环境改善时,又采用适度恢复价格、稳步提升销售额的策略。
Based on the improvement of the previous calculation methods, the paper decomposes the export growth into three aspects: the expansion margin, the quantity quantity and the price. By using the international trade data of HS-6 digits from 1995 to 2010, this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic characteristics of China’s export growth. The conclusion shows that the ternary margins of export growth have different trend of change from 1995 to 2010, the contribution of expanding marginal and price tends to decrease, but the contribution of the quantity is on the rise. During the financial crisis from 2008 to 2010, Compared with other countries in the world, China’s exports have performed well because of the strategy of reducing prices for Chinese exports in the face of the sluggish export market in 2009. When the export environment improved in 2010, it adopted a modest recovery price and steadily Strategy to increase sales.