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本文基于物种竞争的Lotka-Volterra模型的理论逻辑,对上海证券交易所与香港联合交易所之间的动态竞争关系进行分析。结果显示,1993年以来上海证券交易所与香港联交所之间整体呈现互助型竞争关系。期间,1995年开始两所的竞争由此前捕食者-猎物关系转换为互助型竞争关系,但2011年后期再次切换,结束了互助型竞争关系进入捕食者-猎物关系。基于模型机理判断,未来双方仍将持续互助型增长态势。结合证券交易所市场结构调整经验,本文提出扩大交叉上市范围、强化结盟等政策建议。
Based on the theoretical logic of the Lotka-Volterra model of species competition, this paper analyzes the dynamic competition between Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The results show that since 1993, there has been a mutual aid and competition between the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. During the two competitions started in 1995, the former predator-prey relationship was transformed into a mutual-aid competition. However, in the latter part of 2011, it switched again and ended the mutual-aid competition into the predator-prey relationship. Judging based on the model mechanism, the two sides will continue to see mutual assistance and growth in the future. Combined with the experience of the market structure adjustment of stock exchanges, this paper proposes some policy suggestions such as expanding the scope of cross-listing and strengthening the alliance.